NUMERICAL MODELS’ APPLICATION FOR MORPHODYNAMICS ASSESSMENT OF CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS IN THE MINHO RIVER ESTUARY

The knowledge of physical, biological, and chemical estuarine processes how they are affected by climate change conditions is essential for improving management. A common methodological approach studying these complex based on the implementation numerical models supported field data as bathymetry, sediment characteristics, flow discharges, current velocities, sea water levels. This work a model Minho River estuary using Delft3D software. able to simulate hydrodynamic morphodynamic different time scales. It was calibrated OpenDA tool, which automatically determines some models’ parameters, such tidal constituents roughness coefficient, aiming minimize error between observed simulated results. Different scenarios were considered assess effects change, according 5th Assessment Report Intergovernmental Panel Climate Change (IPCC). Results showed that elevation in mouth can reach 77 cm, depending scenario. also determined floods main transport driver along estuary, intensifying accretion processes. Furthermore, sea-level rise reduces amount transported sediments coastal platform, increasing erosion risk this area inside estuary.